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CME Group Inc (CME) — chart, structure and Closelooknet read

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The desk on CME

What this diary said about CME Group Inc, what it holds and what would change its view — in its own words, dated. Investment diary, not advice.

What we said

Signals for this name

Every Closelooknet reading that exists for CME, from the same nightly bakes the boards use. Research diary readings, not advice.

Versus its index HALO Growth 100 — the name, its sleeve and the index over day, week and month

Versus its index

The name against its Closelooknet index and its own sleeve — equal-weight, nightly closes.

HALO Growth 100 · as of 2026-10-06

DayWeekMonth3 months
CME+0.1%+2.6%−3.9%+11.2%
Payments & Financial Infrastructure+1.2%+4.9%−4.7%—
HALO Growth 100+0.5%+0.7%−4.9%—

Against the index: 1.9 pts ahead on the week, 1.0 pts ahead on the month; against its Payments & Financial Infrastructure sleeve 0.8 pts ahead on the month.

Returns from the index workers’ nightly closes; equal-weight sleeves. A relative reading from the research diary, not advice.

Mentioned on Closelooknet 5 pieces · newest: Daily Pulse, “AI Search — The Owners of the Facts Are Down 20–40%, the Answer Boxes Sit Near Their Highs” (2026-09-22)

Mentioned on Closelooknet

Where CME appears in the diary — 5 pieces, newest first. Every link is our own writing.

Long reads

  • Treasuries — Stock Market at a CrossroadsWeekly Signal · 17 May 2026Sources April 2026 CPI release (BLS, 12 May); April 2026 PPI release (BLS, 13 May); CME FedWatch; Closelook Sector RS Dashboard .
  • Bitcoin Weekly SignalWeekly Signal · 24 Feb 2026D7 · 10% 30 Sentiment Fear & Greed Index 22 — Extreme Fear Funding Rates Slightly negative CME COT Specs net short Deep fear.

Dailies

Weather around the name 3 macro readings: Money Temperature, Factor regime, Sovereign pressure

The weather around this name

Macro readings that apply by membership — the regime, the factor tape, the sector cell, the funding backdrop.

  • Money Temperature Composite 61/100 · S&P 500 fund at 75, bullish alignedEight instruments scored on position, momentum, volume, volatility and fragility — the regime every name trades inside. Temperature lab → 2026-10-06
  • Factor regime Momentum leading — risk appetite buildingMomentum against low volatility (SPMO / SPLV): above its 50-day trend, 98th percentile of the window, +5.7% over 20 sessions. Factor regime → 2026-10-06
  • Sovereign pressure Index 0.74 · up 0.17 over 21 sessionsG7 long-end yields, 10s30s and the slope — the funding weather for every balance sheet on this site. Sovereign pressure → 2026-10-06
How it trades on rate days beta −0.31 to TLT · on the worst bond days it held up better than the market

How it trades on rate days

How CME has moved when long-dated Treasury yields rise — measured against TLT, the 20+ year Treasury fund.

  • Beta to long bonds, 1 year −0.31 — shows only a loose link to bond moves for every 1% move in TLT (20+ year Treasuries), CME Group Inc moved −0.31% on average · correlation −0.12 · higher than 4% of US names
  • Beta, last 3 months −0.41 about the same as over the year
  • On the 10 worst bond days +0.11% on average against −0.74% for the S&P 500 the 10 sessions of the past year in which TLT fell most, i.e. long yields rose most
  • Latest of those days −0.70% TLT −1.29% that day 2026-09-24

Daily total returns from the adjusted price series; a TLT down day is a day long yields rose. Beta = the average move of the name for a 1% move in TLT. Past sensitivity, not a forecast. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

Who it is priced against HALO Growth 100 · Payments & Financial Infrastructure · 7 names with week and year-to-date

Peer group

HALO Growth 100 · Payments & Financial Infrastructure

Payments rails, exchanges, data-and-analytics franchises. The toll-booth economics of finance, hard to displace.

Compared against CME on the nightly bakes; the Peers tab ranks the cohort on the Closelooknet scores where it exists.

Company snapshot — CME Group Inc

CME in five paragraphs: what it makes and sells, where it sits in the Closelooknet stack, who it is priced against, why we track it, what we watch. Research diary, not advice.

What it does
CME Group runs exchanges where futures and options trade on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, and on agricultural, energy and metals commodities. It also operates a clearing house that settles and guarantees these contracts, and it sells real-time and historical market data. Customers include traders, banks, asset managers, corporations and central banks. Founded as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, it took its current name in 2007 and is based in Chicago.
Where it sits in the stack
CME sits in our HALO Growth 100 index, in the Payments & Financial Infrastructure sleeve — the toll-booth businesses of finance that are hard to route around. Inside that sleeve CME is the chokepoint for derivatives: anyone hedging rates, equities, currencies or commodities passes through its exchanges and its clearing house, and pays for its data as a separate customer relationship.
Who it is priced against
Its Closelooknet peer group is Payments & Financial Infrastructure, alongside Wise, Toast, HDFC Bank, Deutsche Börse, Verisk Analytics, Nu Holdings and Adyen; the market also compares it with Intercontinental Exchange.
Why Closelooknet tracks it
CME is a HALO Growth 100 constituent and carries a Closelooknet score, strongest on quality and weakest on valuation. The diary cites its FedWatch tool in Daily Pulse and Weekly Signal pieces on rate expectations, and its futures positioning data features in the Bitcoin Weekly Signal.
What the diary watches
Whether the rate-cut cycle changes trading and hedging volume through its exchanges, and whether its move into new contract types, such as sports-index futures, adds a durable revenue line.

CME Group Inc (CME) trades on US exchanges. Constituent of HALO Growth 100.

Written from the company’s public profile and Closelooknet’s own readings, 2026-09-17. Descriptive, refreshed with the registry; corrections welcome via the imprint. closelook.net is an investment research diary — market structure, index membership and scores are our own readings, not investment advice. Related: index compare · sector dispersion · scanner.

The Street on this name 2 analyst actions on the wire · latest: price target by UBS, 2026-10-05

The Street on this name

Analyst actions and the latest print for CME from the Closelooknet wires — third-party opinions on the record, not our readings.

  • Price target UBS — target 270 Target set to $270 (+2.6% to spot) 2026-10-05
  • Price target Wells Fargo — target 301 Target set to $301 (+13.5% to spot) 2026-10-01

2 actions on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 2 target changes. Analyst wire → · Earnings wire →

Dividends and capital return trailing yield 4.18%, quarterly · last 1.30 USD on 2026-09-09

Dividends and capital return

What CME pays out and buys back — distributions read from the price series, money terms from the filings.

  • Trailing 12 months 11.30 USD per share · a 4.18% yield on the 2026-10-06 close 4 distributions, paid quarterly 2026-10-06
  • Change on the year +5.6% against the prior twelve months prior twelve months 10.70 USD per share
  • Last distribution 1.30 USD per share as the price series records it, within days of the ex-date 2026-09-09
  • By calendar year 2023: 6.35 USD (partial) · 2024: 10.40 USD · 2025: 5.00 USD · 2026: 10.05 USD to date first distribution recorded in the three-year window: 2023-12-07

Per-share amounts are derived from the adjusted price series in the listing currency, so dates sit within days of the ex-date; filing figures come from the fundamentals feed for the last reported fiscal year. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-10-07

Quick answers

What is CME Group Inc (CME)?

CME Group Inc trades as CME on the US exchange (US) in the Closelooknet research universe, as of the registry build of 2026-10-07.

Is CME in a Closelooknet index?

Yes — CME Group Inc is a constituent of HALO Growth 100, as of 2026-10-07.

Where does CME trade against its moving averages?

Stochastic turned up: Its stochastic crossed up out of oversold (%K 36.4 over %D 26) 3 sessions ago — a short-term momentum-turn signal. As of 2026-10-05 — a technical state from the nightly Closelooknet bake, not advice. The Technical tab carries the full row.

How is CME doing against its Closelooknet index?

Over the past month CME Group Inc is −3.9% against −4.9% for the HALO Growth 100 — 1.0 points ahead of its index, as of 2026-10-06. Its Payments & Financial Infrastructure sleeve is −4.7% over the same month. The “Versus its index” table on this page carries the day, the week and the month for the name, its sleeve and the index.

How does CME Group Inc compare with its peers?

Against its peer group (HALO Growth 100 · Payments & Financial Infrastructure), CME Group Inc (CME) sits 16.0% below its 52-week high, 0.2% below its 50-day average; Wise plc (WISE.L) is 24.9% below, Deutsche Börse AG (DB1.DE) is 0.7% below, Nu Holdings Ltd (NU) is 20.0% below. Put any of them next to CME in the chart grid (2×1 or 2×2) and the page lays the companies side by side: performance, trend, valuation, margins and our money-flow reading.

How does CME Group Inc trade when bond yields rise?

Over the past year CME Group Inc had a beta of −0.31 to TLT, the long-dated Treasury fund — it shows only a loose link to bond moves, higher than 4% of US names. On the 10 sessions in which long bonds fell most it moved +0.11% on average, against −0.74% for the S&P 500. The "How it trades on rate days" block on this page carries the lines.

Where has Closelooknet written about CME Group Inc?

CME Group Inc appears in 5 Closelooknet pieces, most recently Daily Pulse: AI Search — The Owners of the Facts Are Down 20–40%, the Answer Boxes Sit Near Their Highs (2026-09-22); Daily Pulse: Producer prices rise 0.4%, 5.4% on the year, with oil at $105 — what today’s PPI and Friday’s CPI actually measure, and why the Fed reads them in this order (2026-09-10); Daily Pulse: Oil hits $100 and Europe sells off 2% — Wall Street opens with memory chips up and almost everything else down (2026-09-09). What Closelooknet said most recently: The exchanges — ICE, CME, Nasdaq, LSEG — sit 7% to 17% under their highs. (Daily Pulse, 2026-09-22). The "Mentioned on Closelooknet" block on this page lists the long reads, the reference entries and the dailies that name it.

What does CME Group Inc do?

CME Group runs exchanges where futures and options trade on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, and on agricultural, energy and metals commodities. It also operates a clearing house that settles and guarantees these contracts, and it sells real-time and historical market data. Customers include traders, banks, asset managers, corporations and central banks. Its Closelooknet peer group is Payments & Financial Infrastructure, alongside Wise, Toast, HDFC Bank, Deutsche Börse, Verisk Analytics, Nu Holdings and Adyen; the market also compares it with Intercontinental Exchange.

Where does CME Group Inc sit in the AI build-out?

CME sits in our HALO Growth 100 index, in the Payments & Financial Infrastructure sleeve — the toll-booth businesses of finance that are hard to route around. Inside that sleeve CME is the chokepoint for derivatives: anyone hedging rates, equities, currencies or commodities passes through its exchanges and its clearing house, and pays for its data as a separate customer relationship. CME is a HALO Growth 100 constituent and carries a Closelooknet score, strongest on quality and weakest on valuation. The diary cites its FedWatch tool in Daily Pulse and Weekly Signal pieces on rate expectations, and its futures positioning data features in the Bitcoin Weekly Signal.

Does CME Group Inc pay a dividend?

CME Group Inc has paid 11.30 USD per share over the last twelve months, paid quarterly, a trailing yield of 4.18% on the 2026-10-06 close; the last distribution recorded in the price series was 1.30 USD on 2026-09-09. The "Dividends and capital return" block on this page carries the lines.

What has Wall Street done on CME Group Inc recently?

The most recent analyst action on CME Group Inc on the Closelooknet wire is a price target by UBS on 2026-10-05 (target 270). 2 actions on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 2 target changes. Analyst actions are third-party opinions recorded by the wire, not Closelooknet readings. The “The Street on this name” block on this page lists the moves; the full feeds are the analyst wire and the earnings wire.

What does this page show?

A live price chart with SMA overlays and drawing tools for CME, performance metrics, index-membership context and the Closelooknet structure read — an investment research diary view, not investment advice.

Related in the Closelooknet universe

same Closelooknet index seat first, then Financial Data & Stock Exchanges. Scored names rank on their Closelooknet score; names without one rank on trend state — above or below their 50- and 200-day averages — never on a score they do not carry.