Four toolboxes — Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth,
Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner — each raise their own
alerts. On their own they're noise. This layer asks the only question that matters:
do they agree? It clusters every alert by what it implies for the market and scores
each cluster by how many independent tools confirm it — turning dozens of isolated signals
into one ranked stack and a single Master Risk Score.
Divergence84 SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.
Divergence56 QQQ has risen over 63 days while SMH/XLK has not confirmed (+7.1% gap) — Semis — the cycle tell — are not confirming Nasdaq strength.
Divergence52 XLK has risen over 63 days while AIQ/XLK has not confirmed (+16.5% gap) — The AI basket is not confirming broad-tech leadership.
Divergence65 SPY has risen over 21 days while SPHB/SPLV has not confirmed (+5.2% gap) — The rally is not led by high-beta — defensives are quietly leading.
Divergence43 SPY has risen over 63 days while XLY/XLP has not confirmed (+8% gap) — Discretionary is not outperforming staples — a cautious consumer.
Divergence63 SPY is rising over 21d while IWM/SPY upside participation is fading — The S&P is rising but small-caps’ upside (up-day) beta is fading — they are not capturing the advance.
Divergence41 SPY is rising over 21d while HYG/SPY upside participation is fading — Equities are rising but high-yield credit’s upside beta is fading — credit isn’t capturing the risk-on.
Beta18 HYG/SPY: distribution — upside-beta collapse, beta-adjusted underperformance
How to read it
Every toolbox's alerts are normalised into one schema and mapped to a market implication
(narrowing, risk-off, leadership exhaustion, hidden fragility, broadening…). Alerts that imply the same
thing form a cluster, scored by the spec blend:
base severity (0.25), toolbox confirmation (0.20, how many of the four
agree), independence (0.15, distinct evidence types — price vs beta vs breadth vs credit),
regime relevance (0.15), persistence (0.10), worsening
(0.10) and importance (0.05). A cluster confirmed by three independent tools is a
high-conviction read; one tool alone is a watch item. The Master Risk Score tracks the
top cluster, lifted when several distinct bearish clusters fire at once.
It fuses alerts from four independent Market X-Ray toolboxes — Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner — into clusters by market implication, then scores each cluster by how many of the four tools confirm it. The result is one Master Market-Structure Risk Score and a ranked, de-duplicated alert stack.
What is the Master Market-Structure Risk Score right now?
As of 2026-08-07, the Master Market-Structure Risk Score is 73, labeled "high".
How many alert clusters are confirmed by multiple toolboxes?
As of 2026-08-07, 2 of 5 alert clusters are confirmed by two or more toolboxes, out of 24 raw alerts across all four tools.
How is a cluster’s score calculated?
Each cluster blends base severity (25%), toolbox confirmation (20%, how many of the four tools agree), independence of evidence (15%), regime relevance (15%), persistence (10%), worsening (10%) and importance (5%). A cluster confirmed by three independent tools reads as high-conviction; one tool alone is a watch item.