SMH / QQQ fragile
Semiconductor leadership vs Nasdaq
Upside β1.70
Downside β1.98
Asymmetry-0.28
Particip.0.86
| horizon | 21d | 63d | 126d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up β | 1.87 | 1.63 | 1.70 | 1.71 |
| down β | 1.63 | 2.06 | 1.98 | 1.96 |
downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetry
Market Structure · Beta Instability
Market X-Ray
The chart can be fine while participation breaks down underneath. The X-Ray measures it directly — upside beta (on up-days), downside beta (on down-days), asymmetry and instability — across the key structure pairs and 343 names in our indices. Detecting the rotation before price makes it obvious.
vs S&P 500 34% losing upside participation, 39% gaining downside fragility
vs Nasdaq-100 40% losing upside participation, 26% gaining downside fragility
Updated daily · data as of 2026-08-07 · Participation fragile — fragility rising beneath the surface
Latest read The Generals Have Followed Their Troops — the breadth warning becomes price confirmation →
Toolboxes Daily Read → Beta Instability Breadth-of-Breadth · 55 Mixed participation → Ratio-Quality → Divergence Scanner → Alert Stack → Regime Baselines → Anomaly Score → Directory →
The pairs we watch — full scores
Each pair, decomposed on up-days and down-days separately. These are the published "Troops Leaving Before the Generals" set — now confirmed by price in "The Generals Have Followed Their Troops".
XSD / QQQ fragile
Equal-weight semis vs Nasdaq
Upside β1.77
Downside β2.36
Asymmetry-0.58
Particip.0.75
| horizon | 21d | 63d | 126d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up β | 2.19 | 1.81 | 1.77 | 1.93 |
| down β | 2.26 | 2.41 | 2.36 | 2.18 |
downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetry
XSD / SPY decoupling
Equal-weight semis vs market
Upside β2.65
Downside β2.52
Asymmetry+0.14
Particip.1.06
| horizon | 21d | 63d | 126d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up β | 5.22 | 3.61 | 2.65 | 2.74 |
| down β | 2.43 | 2.31 | 2.52 | 2.44 |
downside-beta expansion
IWM / SPY distribution
Small-cap participation
Upside β1.03
Downside β1.07
Asymmetry-0.04
Particip.0.96
| horizon | 21d | 63d | 126d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up β | 1.04 | 0.77 | 1.03 | 1.25 |
| down β | 0.38 | 0.95 | 1.07 | 1.11 |
negative beta asymmetrybeta-adjusted underperformanceupside participation deteriorating (sharp)
RSP / SPY decoupling
S&P 500 equal-weight participation
Upside β0.61
Downside β0.78
Asymmetry-0.16
Particip.0.79
| horizon | 21d | 63d | 126d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up β | 0.14 | 0.34 | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| down β | 0.37 | 0.73 | 0.78 | 0.75 |
upside-beta collapsenegative beta asymmetryupside participation deteriorating (sharp)
HYG / SPY distribution
Credit confirmation
Upside β0.24
Downside β0.21
Asymmetry+0.02
Particip.1.10
| horizon | 21d | 63d | 126d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up β | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| down β | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.19 |
upside-beta collapsebeta-adjusted underperformance
ARKK / QQQ decoupling
Speculative-growth appetite
Upside β1.47
Downside β1.21
Asymmetry+0.26
Particip.1.21
| horizon | 21d | 63d | 126d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up β | 1.59 | 1.41 | 1.47 | 1.38 |
| down β | 1.67 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.41 |
downside-beta expansion (sharp)
Participation breadth — by index (vs S&P 500)
lake 2366 names 35% losing upside participation, 38% gaining downside fragility rubin 123 names 11% losing upside participation, 69% gaining downside fragility halo 100 names 26% losing upside participation, 45% gaining downside fragility euro-ai 65 names 23% losing upside participation, 40% gaining downside fragility aw25 38 names 55% losing upside participation, 18% gaining downside fragility agentic 32 names 47% losing upside participation, 19% gaining downside fragility etfs 14 names 43% losing upside participation, 36% gaining downside fragility
Want a specific name? Open the X-Ray Directory → — search, sort and open any of 2738 names on the full toolbox vs SPY & Nasdaq.
How to read it
For each pair (asset vs benchmark), returns are split into the benchmark's up-days and down-days. Upside β is participation in rallies; downside β is vulnerability in selloffs; asymmetry (up − down) and the participation ratio (up ÷ down) say whether an asset captures more upside than downside. Read across 21 / 63 / 126 / 252 days: a sharp drop at the short horizon while the long looks fine is the early warning.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Scores are relative and descriptive. Cross-read with the Money Temperature regime.
FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-08-07
Quick answers
What does the Market X-Ray measure?
It measures market participation and fragility beneath the index price by splitting each pair’s returns into up-day and down-day beta. Upside beta shows participation in rallies, downside beta shows vulnerability in selloffs, and asymmetry (up minus down) shows whether an asset captures more upside than downside. It covers the key structure pairs and the full names universe in the Closelook indices, recomputed daily after the US close.
What is the current structural read on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100?
As of 2026-08-07, the read vs the S&P 500 is "34% losing upside participation, 39% gaining downside fragility" and vs the Nasdaq-100 is "40% losing upside participation, 26% gaining downside fragility".
How many names does the Market X-Ray directory cover?
As of 2026-08-07, the X-Ray directory covers 2738 names, ETFs and sector members scored against SPY and Nasdaq-100.
What is the Breadth-of-Breadth score right now?
As of 2026-08-07, the Breadth-of-Breadth score is 55 out of 100, reading as "Mixed participation".