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The Trading Day · Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Bonds — TLT closes at a one-year low but holds 78; oil slides on a reserve release, Micron reports tonight

Long bonds fell for a sixth session. The long-bond fund TLT closed at 78.23, down 0.50% and its lowest close in a year, 15% under its high of last October. At midday it traded at 77.93, and our Midday 10 wrote that it had broken 78. It did not close there: the fund finished back above 78. The 30-year Treasury yield stayed close to 5.6%, the highest since the early 2000s.

The Morning 10

Bonds — TLT closes at a one-year low but holds 78; oil slides on a reserve release, Micron reports tonight

  1. 1 Bonds — TLT closes at 78.23, its lowest close in a year, but back above 78 after 77.93 at midday
  2. 2 Oil — WTI fund USO -4.4%, Brent fund BNO -2.6% as the US offers barrels from its reserve
  3. 3 Overnight — Tokyo up about 1.5%, China's factories grow again, Australian inflation at 4.0%
  4. 4 Rebalance day — today's close resets every Closelooknet equal-weight index to an equal share per name
  5. 5 AI Board — 110 of 126 Rubin names are losing strength, while most Agentic names are getting stronger
  6. 6 Chips — ASML +3.6%, Arm +3.7%, Oracle +3.9%; software keeps sliding, ServiceNow -7.7% on the week
  7. 7 Megacaps — Apple -2.7% to 329.40, Meta +3.2%, Tesla -7.2% on the week
  8. 8 Movers — Fair Isaac -26.5% as mortgages open to a rival score; Carnival +13.4%, Bloom Energy +10.8%
  9. 9 Micron — results after the US close: about $31.52 a share on $51.07 billion expected
  10. 10 Rest of the week — core PCE today, Golden Week from Thursday, US jobs report on Friday

The full Morning 10 →

The Midday 10

Bonds — TLT breaks 78 even after soft inflation; 30-year at 5.64%, software jumps, Jabil −7.7% on a beat

  • 1 Long bonds break 78: TLT $77.58 (−0.83%), TLH $91.92 (−0.62%), IEF $89.17 (−0.32%); 30-year yield 5.64% (Tuesday 5.594%), 10-year 5.29% (5.255%)
  • 2 Soft inflation, strong growth: core PCE +0.2% in August (0.3% expected), 3.0% on the year (3.3% expected); second-quarter GDP revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%
  • 3 Software leads: software fund IGV $106.66 (+1.81%), Microsoft $516.93 (+1.57%), C3.ai $10.85 (+4.93%), BlackBerry $9.13 (+4.99%)

All ten lines →

On the tape

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