Bonds — the long end breaks: 30-year at 5.56%, gold -3.9%; MongoDB sinks 18% as Meta moves in

The Morning 10

Bonds — the long end breaks: 30-year at 5.56%, gold -3.9%; MongoDB sinks 18% as Meta moves in

1. 1 The long end breaks: TLT 78.62, +0.4% above its 52-week low after five down sessions; the 30-year yield closed at 5.561%
2. 2 Gold fund GLD -3.94% to 377.91, gold miners GDX -5.36% - a drop of almost 4% in a day is rare for gold
3. 3 MongoDB -18.46% to 334.68 after Meta hired its chief executive for a new enterprise business
4. 4 Per-user software sold: Atlassian -4.90%, ServiceNow -3.07%, Salesforce -2.88%, Snowflake -2.33%; the software fund IGV only -0.55%
5. 5 Nvidia +1.68% to 228.86 on a red day; Arm -8.70%, Intel -5.67%, the chip fund SOXX -2.08%
6. 6 Cybersecurity up while the market fell: Palo Alto Networks +4.63% to 392.09, CrowdStrike +2.82% to 259.25
7. 7 Asia lower this morning: Nikkei -1.29%, Kospi -0.91%, Hang Seng -0.62%; Samsung +0.56%, SK Hynix -0.90%, TSMC +0.20%
8. 8 Oil funds up about 1% on Monday (BNO 60.33, USO 150.01); bitcoin 82,968 this morning; the yen at 157.47 per dollar
9. 9 AI Board: most Rubin names losing strength (111 of 126), most Ecosystem (21 of 34) and Winners names (34 of 40) getting stronger
10. 10 Today: Costco and BlackBerry scored at the close; Cintas was paid +4.5%; futures -0.3% (S&P) and -0.4% (Nasdaq)

The full Morning 10 →

The Midday 10

Fair Isaac — sinks 29% as Washington opens mortgages to VantageScore; long-bond fund breaks 78

• 1 Fair Isaac $596.82 (-29.03%) after the housing regulator opens Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages to VantageScore 4.0
• 2 The credit bureaus fall with it: TransUnion $61.94 (-6.42%), Equifax $139.04 (-4.62%)
• 3 Long bonds break lower: TLT 77.93 (-0.88%), TLH 92.11 (-0.70%), IEF 89.22 (-0.35%); thirty-year yield 5.599% (Monday 5.561%), ten-year 5.268% (5.240%)

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Daily Pulse — Long Bonds — The Break Is Global: Why Earnings Growth Now Has to Outrun Rates

The long-bond fund TLT closed Monday at 78.62, 0.4% above its 52-week low after five down sessions, and the 30-year yield closed at 5.561%. The 10-20 and 7-10 year funds sit at their lows too. The move is global: Japan is normalizing rates and European sovereign credit is weakening. For stocks that means lower valuations, and only earnings growth can make up for them.

The full Pulse →

On the tape

• Money Temperature · Risk-on rally — 2 heating / 2 cooling
• Cross-asset day: VIX 16.0, DXY 101.44, 10Y 5.24% — risk-on regime
• Euro-AI 50 · 1-month leaders — ATS.VI +28.40% / PATH -33.50%
• Euro-AI 50 · Daily leaders — SY1.DE +2.50% / ARM -8.70%
• HALO 100 · 1-month leaders — NTRA +21.57% / FLNC -34.38%
• HALO 100 · 1-month sector leaders — LONGEVITY -0.30% / NUCLEAR -17.52%
• HALO 100 · Sector flow — MEDDEV +1.25% / ENERGY -2.83%
• HALO 100 · Daily leaders — GXI.DE +5.53% / NU -10.01%