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Closelook@US Stock Markets
Nasdaq — The Confirmation Came, and the Market Underneath Made Its Low
The Nasdaq 100 fund closed the week at 749.58, a record and above the 746.16 line this letter has waited on since August — the confirmation, on a weekly close. On the same Friday the Nasdaq 100 without its tech stocks closed at its lowest level of the year, the S&P 500 without tech fell 1.5%, only three of eleven sectors rose, and not one financial stock in the S&P closed above its 20-day average. Soft inflation and a weak jobs report could not lower the long end. The fourth quarter starts here — the strongest stretch of the calendar, two uncertain weeks before the reporting season, and TSMC's September sales as the first test.
Edition of 2026-10-04
The US tape, structure-first — indices, semis, software, the builds behind the moves.
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Closelook@Global Stock Markets
Three Speeds — America's Tech at a Record, Europe Slides, Asia Splits on AI
The Nasdaq 100 made a record close, global tech took out its June high, and Taiwan and Japan's broad fund closed at records — while every mainland European market on the board fell, France, Spain and Austria by four to five percent, Switzerland and Britain with them, and India slid to its lowest close in a year. The dollar made its highest close of 2026 and the euro its lowest; the long bond made a new low every day of the week, and gold broke its first support. The world ex-US index lost its line again, and its lead over America for the year is down to six tenths of a point. America won a fourth week. This letter's read for the fourth quarter — stay home, because the AI trade lives in America and Asia — and TSMC's September sales next week are the first test of it.
Edition of 2026-10-03
The world ex-US in one read — regions, flows, and where the capital actually lands.
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Closelook@Hypergrowth
Paid — the Testers, the Packagers and the Optics. Tiring — the Builders' Flow
The three AI indices this week, index by index, sector by sector and stock by stock, with the flow tables laid over them. The builder rose 5.9% and is up 111% on the year, but 110 of its 126 members lost momentum while it rose; the runner made a record; the applications index fell again, and 33 of its 40 members turned stronger. The money went to the companies that test, package and connect the chips. Five winners and five losers of the week, with the catalyst behind each — and TSMC's September sales next week as the first number of the fourth quarter.
Edition of 2026-10-04
The fastest-growing names and the discipline for holding them.
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