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Fed Minutes Signal Another Hike, Samsung Record: Morning 10

Fed — minutes point to another rate hike by year-end; Samsung earns a record $80 billion in one quarter

Stocks slipped from their records — the S&P 500 −0.2%, small caps −1.3% — and the power and cooling suppliers to AI data centres were sold: Vicor −5.5%, nVent −3.4%, Eaton −3.1%. Micron rose 4.1%. Overnight Brent oil climbed 2.5% to $102.66; PepsiCo reports before the open at a one-year low.

In this edition

SHY IEF TLT SPY QQQ RSP IWM XLI

The Morning 10 Thu, Oct 8, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET

The ten points

The day after two record closes, US stocks slipped. The S&P 500 fell 0.22% to 7,801.77 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.22% to 27,538.69; the Dow lost 0.66%. The pullback was wider underneath: the Russell 2000 of smaller companies fell 1.31% and the equal-weight S&P fund RSP 0.81% — most stocks fell, not only the big ones. Industrials were the weakest sector (−2.2%), health care the strongest (+1.0%).

The selling hit the companies that power and cool AI data centres — Vicor −5.5%, nVent −3.4%, Eaton −3.1%, Vertiv −2.6% — and the data-centre operators Nebius (−5.1%) and CoreWeave (−3.6%). Memory went the other way: Micron +4.1%, SanDisk +1.9%. After the close the Fed's September minutes said most officials expect one more rate hike by the end of the year, and named oil near $100 and AI spending as inflation risks.

Overnight Samsung Electronics reported a record quarterly operating profit of about 107.4 trillion won ($80 billion) — and its shares barely moved. Asia traded lower across the board: Kospi −1.4%, Nikkei −0.7%, Taiwan −1.0%. Brent crude rose 2.5% to $102.66. US futures are flat. PepsiCo reports before the US open.

  1. Fed minutes — most officials see another rate hike by year-end; oil and AI spending named as inflation risks
  2. Stocks slip from records — S&P 500 −0.2%, small caps −1.3%, equal-weight S&P −0.8%
  3. Power and cooling — Vicor −5.5%, nVent −3.4%, Eaton −3.1%, Vertiv −2.6%
  4. Samsung — record quarterly operating profit of about 107.4 trillion won ($80 billion); the shares barely move
  5. Memory — Micron +4.1% to 1,088, SanDisk +1.9%, a day after the hard-drive sell-off
  6. Oil — Brent +2.5% to $102.66 overnight on reported tanker attacks and a Gulf storm threat
  7. Rubin 100 — now 130 names, −2.2% on Wednesday, +4.0% since the 30 September rebalance
  8. Bonds, dollar, gold — 10-year at 5.28%, dollar fund at a one-year high, gold −1.7%
  9. Print Record — PepsiCo reports before the open at a one-year low; Penguin Solutions +13.1% heads into Friday
  10. Asia lower, US futures flat — Nikkei −0.7%, Taiwan −1.0%; TSMC's September sales due by Saturday

  1. Fed minutes — most officials see another rate hike by year-end; oil and AI spending named as inflation risks

    Structure

    SHYIEFTLT

    What
    The minutes of the Fed's 15–16 September meeting, when it raised its key rate by a quarter point to 3.75–4.00%, came out on Wednesday afternoon. The central line: "Most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end." All participants backed the September hike, Bloomberg reported. Two inflation sources stand out. Officials worried that the longer energy prices stay high, the more those costs spread to other industries — oil near $100 a barrel was named as a key risk. Several also warned that the AI build-out could push demand ahead of supply. Reuters quoted another line: several participants saw the current rate as "not restrictive or only mildly restrictive". The minutes predate the September jobs report, which showed only 29,000 new jobs. The next decision is on 28 October.
    If
    the 2-year Treasury yield rises today as the bond market digests the minutes
    Why
    the minutes describe a Fed that wants to hike again, while the weak jobs report argued for a pause — the 2-year yield shows which reading the market prices
    Then
    the rates page tracks the yield curve against the Fed's path

    Open the detail →

  2. Stocks slip from records — S&P 500 −0.2%, small caps −1.3%, equal-weight S&P −0.8%

    Structure

    SPYQQQRSPIWMXLI

    What
    The S&P 500 fell 0.22% to 7,801.77, a day after its first record close since 13 August (7,818.93); it still sits above the old closing record of 7,798.99. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.22% to 27,538.69 and the Nasdaq-100 0.21% to 31,160. The Dow fell 0.66% to 51,179.87, 5.8% below its 5 August high. The broad market did worse than the index. The Russell 2000 fell 1.31% to 2,793.20, 9.0% below its 14 August high, and the equal-weight fund RSP fell 0.81%. Industrials (XLI −2.2%), materials (−1.5%) and real estate (−1.3%) led the losses; health care rose 1.0%, with Eli Lilly +2.7%. Banks slipped ahead of next week's earnings: Wells Fargo −1.5%, Goldman Sachs −1.1%, Bank of America −1.1%. The volatility index VIX stood at 15.08.
    If
    the S&P 500 closes below 7,798.99, its previous closing record
    Why
    a record that is given back within two days is a test that failed; holding above the old high keeps the breakout intact
    Then
    the market-structure page tracks breadth behind the index highs

    Open the detail →

  3. Signals The live feed — what the book did and why, straight from the holdings diff. Open the feed →

  4. Power and cooling — Vicor −5.5%, nVent −3.4%, Eaton −3.1%, Vertiv −2.6%

    Structure

    VICRNVTETNVRTNBIS

    What
    The suppliers that bring power and cooling into AI data centres were sold. Vicor, which makes power modules for AI processors, fell 5.5% to 282.78, its second loss in a row (−2.1% on Tuesday); nVent fell 3.4% and Eaton 3.1%, giving back Tuesday's gains (+4.0% and +2.9%); Vertiv fell 2.6% to 246.49 — Vertiv is now 34.5% below its 14 May high. Several outlets tied part of Vertiv's slide to a new Sell rating from GLJ Research with a $188 target. The data-centre operators fell too: Nebius −5.1%, CoreWeave −3.6%. The power generators split: Vistra rose 3.9%, while Constellation Energy held most of Tuesday's 12% jump (−0.3%). This is the group our Pulse named on Wednesday as the next bottleneck of the AI build-out. The selling says the market is taking profits on it — not that the shortage is over.
    If
    Vicor and Vertiv fall a third day while Nvidia holds
    Why
    when the suppliers fall and the chip leader does not, investors are cutting the late, crowded part of the AI trade, not the trade itself
    Then
    Wednesday's Pulse lists the ten signals that would show a real cooling of the build-out

    Open the detail →

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C · point 11 · members

Today in line 11: the Fed just named AI spending as an inflation source — what that does to the power and cooling suppliers the market sold on Wednesday.

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