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The Trading Day · Thursday, September 24, 2026

Rates — the 10-year closes at 5.11% and the 5-year hits 5%; Tokyo reopens higher, chip-equipment makers lead

The ten-year Treasury yield closed on Wednesday at 5.114%, up nearly fifteen basis points in one session. The five-year touched 5% for the first time since 2007. A survey showing the fastest US growth in more than five years, a Fed governor saying more rate increases are likely, and oil rising again did it.

The Morning 10

Rates — the 10-year closes at 5.11% and the 5-year hits 5%; Tokyo reopens higher, chip-equipment makers lead

  1. 1 The ten-year closed at 5.114%, up nearly 15 basis points; the five-year touched 5% for the first time since 2007 and closed at 4.997%; the thirty-year 5.40%; the long-bond fund TLT -1.58%
  2. 2 The rate day held to the close: Nasdaq Composite 26,936.04 (-1.13%), S&P 500 7,706.03 (-0.75%), Dow 51,511.59 (-0.68%), Russell 2000 (-1.77%) the weakest
  3. 3 Chips sold as duration, software held: SOXX -1.23%, memory basket -2.70%, SanDisk $1,816.57 (-3.73%), Micron -2.22%, Broadcom -2.62%; against IGV +1.26%, ServiceNow +2.76%, Salesforce +1.84%, and the cyber fund CIBR a record close at $104.01
  4. 4 Meta's Connect named Muse's shopping partners - Walmart, Best Buy, Gap, Sephora, Wayfair, after Instacart on Monday - and Amazon has blocked the agent; new glasses, a headset and a Muse Charm pendant; Meta closed $744.10 (+1.02%) before the keynote
  5. 5 Tokyo reopened higher after three days of holidays: Nikkei 225 65,737.89 (+1.11%) at 06:10 UTC against its 18 September close; Advantest +3.65%, Tokyo Electron +2.03%, SoftBank +1.55%; Toyota -1.52%, MUFG -0.94%
  6. 6 The yen is still weak after the Bank of Japan's increase: 158.18 per dollar this morning, after closing Wednesday at 158.33; the dollar fund UUP +0.60% on Wednesday
  7. 7 The US-China trade truce was extended by two months, to 10 January, as Xi Jinping arrived in Washington; the leaders meet at the White House today; Hong Kong -0.50%, Shanghai -0.99%
  8. 8 Taipei -0.28% with TSMC -1.0% to NT$2,475; Seoul closed for Chuseok today and Friday - the Korea fund EWY fell 3.62% in New York on Wednesday; Sydney -0.74%
  9. 9 Oil kept rising: the Brent fund BNO +4.23% and the WTI fund USO +3.30% on Wednesday; energy stocks XLE +1.00%; bitcoin $84,153 this morning, gold fund GLD -1.80% and silver fund SLV -4.23% on Wednesday
  10. 10 US stock futures lower - S&P -0.41% to 7,740.75, Nasdaq -0.56% at 06:10 UTC; today Trump-Xi at the White House, Costco and BlackBerry results; Seoul shut, Taipei shut Friday; chart pick scores Friday; Cintas print record Monday; Micron 30 September

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The Midday 10

AI Credit — Oracle invokes force majeure on a New Mexico data center; the 30-year hits 5.45%

  • 1 Oracle $137.28 (-5.04%) after a force-majeure notice on Project Jupiter, its 2.45-gigawatt Stargate campus in New Mexico; Blue Owl, whose unit develops the site, $9.13 (-4.9%)
  • 2 Oracle's 2055 bond yielded 7.73% on Wednesday, up 24bp in five days and from 6.99% in June; Nvidia's 2050 bond rose 10.6bp to 6.26%, Alphabet's 2060 bond 9.7bp to 6.07%
  • 3 Private-credit lenders lower but calm: OBDC (-1.6%), Ares Capital (-0.91%), BXSL (-0.73%); the neoclouds mixed: Applied Digital (-2.53%), TeraWulf (-2.11%), Core Scientific (-1.57%), CoreWeave (-0.93%), Nebius $239.80 (+5.82%)

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Daily Pulse — Rates — The 5-Year Hits 5%: Growth Story or Debt Story?

Every US Treasury yield from three months to thirty years closed at a one-year high; the five-year touched 5% for the first time since 2007 and the ten-year closed at 5.114%, its highest since 2007; Japan's ten-year jumped to 3.08% this morning and the Bund is at a one-year high of 3.57%. Five tests say the rise is mostly the good kind: the two-year led (+67 bp in a month against +42 bp for the ten-year), inflation expectations held at 2.35% and the dollar rose 2%. Banks down 6% and an interest bill at 21% of federal receipts are the amber lights. Futures price three to four more Fed increases, with a peak near 4.8% in autumn 2027.

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On the tape

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